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Simon Property Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

16.17%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

16.86%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

18.66%

increased by 1.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Simon Property Group Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 14, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5401
6.54***
αARCH0.1103
9.28***
βGARCH0.8340
51.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0038
0.06
γ2-0.0518
-0.56
γ30.0575
0.95
γ40.1115
1.67*
γ5-0.3400
-5.03***
γ60.3543
6.01***
γ7-0.1487
-2.74***
γ80.0545
1.11
γ9-0.1409
-2.79***
γ100.1501
3.62***

0.944

Persistence

12d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5401
6.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1103
9.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8340
51.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0038
0.06
γ2-0.0518
-0.56
γ30.0575
0.95
γ40.1115
1.67*
γ5-0.3400
-5.03***
γ60.3543
6.01***
γ7-0.1487
-2.74***
γ80.0545
1.11
γ9-0.1409
-2.79***
γ100.1501
3.62***

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days