V-Lab
HGI Creditos Imobiliarios FII Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
47.07%
decreased by 3.93%
1 Week
50.97%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
59.33%
increased by 8.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 13, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0897 | 1.53 |
| αARCH | 0.2159 | 3.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7021 | 6.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.8010 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | -4.1169 | -0.40 |
| γ3 | 13.8825 | 2.10** |
| γ4 | -24.1353 | -3.24*** |
| γ5 | 36.4883 | 5.96*** |
| γ6 | -32.1760 | -7.13*** |
| γ7 | 11.2180 | 1.90* |
| γ8 | 4.3350 | 0.69 |
| γ9 | -5.0828 | -1.16 |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0897 | 1.53 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2159 | 3.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7021 | 6.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.8010 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | -4.1169 | -0.40 |
| γ3 | 13.8825 | 2.10** |
| γ4 | -24.1353 | -3.24*** |
| γ5 | 36.4883 | 5.96*** |
| γ6 | -32.1760 | -7.13*** |
| γ7 | 11.2180 | 1.90* |
| γ8 | 4.3350 | 0.69 |
| γ9 | -5.0828 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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