V-Lab
Hedge Recebiveis FII Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
20.73%
increased by 1.66%
1 Week
19.69%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
19.31%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6706 | 2.20** |
| αARCH | 0.2334 | 3.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1359 | 0.88 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0433 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.4493 | 0.07 |
| γ3 | 2.8529 | 0.54 |
| γ4 | -10.9362 | -2.04** |
| γ5 | 14.7016 | 4.75*** |
| γ6 | -12.2017 | -5.25*** |
| γ7 | 7.8465 | 2.86*** |
| γ8 | -3.4555 | -2.05** |
0.369
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6706 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2334 | 3.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1359 | 0.88 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0433 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.4493 | 0.07 |
| γ3 | 2.8529 | 0.54 |
| γ4 | -10.9362 | -2.04** |
| γ5 | 14.7016 | 4.75*** |
| γ6 | -12.2017 | -5.25*** |
| γ7 | 7.8465 | 2.86*** |
| γ8 | -3.4555 | -2.05** |
Persistence:
0.369
Half-life:
1 days
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