V-Lab
Hedge Recebiveis FII MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
21.30%
increased by 2.06%
1 Week
20.12%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
19.33%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.2181 | 3.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4655 | 4.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.1567 | -1.72* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.4386 | 0.19 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.605
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2181 | 3.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4655 | 4.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1567 | -1.72* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4386 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.605
Half-life:
1 days
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