V-Lab
FII Vida Nova MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
64.33%
increased by 3.45%
1 Week
72.92%
increased by 12.04%
1 Month
79.96%
increased by 19.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.3285 | 4.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4065 | 5.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.0557 | -0.51 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.26 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6311 | 0.49 |
0.707
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3285 | 4.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4065 | 5.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0557 | -0.51 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.26 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6311 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.707
Half-life:
2 days
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