V-Lab
SJ Au Logistica FII MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
154.12%
1 Week
183.44%
1 Month
248.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.5102 | 4.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6561 | 3.97*** |
| γleverage | -0.4412 | -6.12*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.89 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9790 | 37.62*** |
0.946
Persistence12d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5102 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6561 | 3.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4412 | -6.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.89 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9790 | 37.62*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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