V-Lab
Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
17.39%
1 Week
17.71%
1 Month
18.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0038 | 0.73 |
| βGARCH | 0.9591 | 148.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.0640 | 6.94*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.3379 | 1.44 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1910 | 1.49 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.995
Persistence135d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0038 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9591 | 148.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0640 | 6.94*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.3379 | 1.44 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1910 | 1.49 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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