V-Lab
FII Vida Nova Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
103.25%
1 Week
106.50%
1 Month
113.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2016 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.05 |
| αARCH | 0.3662 | 6.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5974 | 9.48*** |
| γleverage | -0.0031 | -0.03 |
| δpower | 1.1011 | 3.11*** |
0.892
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3662 | 6.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5974 | 9.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0031 | -0.03 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1011 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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