V-Lab
FII Vida Nova Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
103.87%
increased by 27.13%
1 Week
113.07%
increased by 36.33%
1 Month
140.35%
increased by 63.61%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2016 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.4186 | 3.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5392 | 10.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.0401 | 0.15 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4186 | 3.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5392 | 10.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0401 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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