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V-Lab

Town Centre Securities PLC Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

32.70%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Week

32.90%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Month

33.72%

decreased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Town Centre Securities PLC AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 17, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 597 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~597 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0321
3.25***
αARCH0.0863
7.07***
βGARCH0.9008
115.55***
γleverage0.0234
1.03

0.999

Persistence

597d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0321
3.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0863
7.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9008
115.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0234
1.03

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

597 days