V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
32.70%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Week
32.90%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
33.72%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 597 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~597 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0321 | 3.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0863 | 7.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9008 | 115.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0234 | 1.03 |
0.999
Persistence597d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0321 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0863 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9008 | 115.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0234 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
597 days
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