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Town Centre Securities PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

587.66%

decreased by 6.24%

1 Week

587.89%

decreased by 6.01%

1 Month

588.81%

decreased by 5.09%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Town Centre Securities PLC GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1,909.0663
2.16**
αARCH0.0763
41.35***
βGARCH0.9990
2,148.39***
νDF2.0011

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1,909.0663
2.16**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0763
41.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,148.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0011

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days