V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
587.66%
decreased by 6.24%
1 Week
587.89%
decreased by 6.01%
1 Month
588.81%
decreased by 5.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1,909.0663 | 2.16** |
| αARCH | 0.0763 | 41.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 2,148.39*** |
| νDF | 2.0011 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,909.0663 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0763 | 41.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,148.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0011 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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