V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
28.22%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
28.46%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
29.33%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0574 | 4.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0690 | 8.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9213 | 101.91*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0574 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0690 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9213 | 101.91*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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