Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Town Centre Securities PLC GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

28.22%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

28.46%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

29.33%

increased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Town Centre Securities PLC GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0574
4.09***
αARCH0.0690
8.59***
βGARCH0.9213
101.91***

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0574
4.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0690
8.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9213
101.91***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days