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Town Centre Securities PLC Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

30.11%

decreased by 1.48%

1 Week

29.99%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Month

29.57%

decreased by 2.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Town Centre Securities PLC APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 17, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 35% more than positive returnsδ = 1.05 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0393
5.24***
αARCH0.1117
11.94***
βGARCH0.8883
93.59***
γleverage0.1415
3.33***
δpower1.0509
6.02***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0393
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1117
11.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8883
93.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1415
3.33***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0509
6.02***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days