V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
30.11%
1 Week
29.99%
1 Month
29.57%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0393 | 5.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1117 | 11.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8883 | 93.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.1415 | 3.33*** |
| δpower | 1.0509 | 6.02*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0393 | 5.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1117 | 11.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8883 | 93.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1415 | 3.33*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0509 | 6.02*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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