V-Lab
RB Capital Desenvolvimento Residencial IV FII Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
25.60%
1 Week
25.89%
1 Month
26.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. The volatility power δ = 1.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0465 | 1.46 |
| αARCH | 0.1173 | 6.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8826 | 33.31*** |
| γleverage | -0.1802 | -1.17 |
| δpower | 1.5964 | 3.11*** |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0465 | 1.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1173 | 6.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8826 | 33.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1802 | -1.17 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5964 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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