V-Lab
RB Capital Desenvolvimento Residencial IV FII Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
22.82%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
22.70%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
22.33%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3799 | 3.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0548 | 2.17** |
| βGARCH | 0.9059 | 18.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0703 | 0.80 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3799 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 2.17** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9059 | 18.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0703 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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