V-Lab
RB Capital Desenvolvimento Residencial IV FII APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
23.58%
1 Week
23.66%
1 Month
23.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0455 | 2.07** |
| αARCH | 0.0606 | 2.10** |
| βGARCH | 0.9214 | 32.00*** |
| γleverage | -0.4071 | -1.24 |
| δpower | 1.5718 | 4.00*** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0455 | 2.07** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0606 | 2.10** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9214 | 32.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4071 | -1.24 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5718 | 4.00*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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