V-Lab
RB Capital Desenvolvimento Residencial IV FII Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
21.93%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
21.73%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
21.07%
decreased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2396 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.0552 | 2.25** |
| βGARCH | 0.9073 | 22.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0329 | 1.90* |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2396 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 2.25** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9073 | 22.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0329 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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