V-Lab
RB Capital Desenvolvimento Residencial IV FII MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
24.87%
1 Week
24.86%
1 Month
24.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0947 | 2.45** |
| βGARCH | 0.8974 | 26.63*** |
| γleverage | -0.0947 | -2.47** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.7714 | 1.21 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5741 | 2.70*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0947 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8974 | 26.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0947 | -2.47** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7714 | 1.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5741 | 2.70*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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