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Ingenia Communities Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

42.06%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

40.22%

decreased by 2.89%

1 Month

35.73%

decreased by 7.38%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ingenia Communities Group S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 29, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3729
6.57***
αARCH0.1312
7.74***
βGARCH0.7756
23.65***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.8934
11.34***
γ2-1.4266
-10.86***
γ30.7101
6.80***
γ4-0.3018
-3.24***
γ50.2868
3.47***
γ6-0.1743
-2.03**
γ7-0.0475
-0.50
γ80.0804
1.08

0.907

Persistence

7d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3729
6.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1312
7.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7756
23.65***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.8934
11.34***
γ2-1.4266
-10.86***
γ30.7101
6.80***
γ4-0.3018
-3.24***
γ50.2868
3.47***
γ6-0.1743
-2.03**
γ7-0.0475
-0.50
γ80.0804
1.08

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days