V-Lab
Canuma Capital Multiestrateg Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
27.26%
increased by 2.05%
1 Week
29.50%
increased by 4.29%
1 Month
37.10%
increased by 11.89%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 28, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4201 trading days (~16.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~4201 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 1.86* |
| αARCH | 0.2277 | 2.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7721 | 8.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -497.6146 | -6.04*** |
| γ2 | 658.9074 | 4.80*** |
| γ3 | -222.5458 | -2.69*** |
| γ4 | 77.8814 | 1.50 |
| γ5 | -26.4469 | -0.65 |
| γ6 | 8.3392 | 0.24 |
| γ7 | 1.3949 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | 16.0599 | 0.40 |
| γ9 | -29.2801 | -0.89 |
| γ10 | 15.9103 | 0.90 |
1.000
Persistence4201d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2277 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7721 | 8.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -497.6146 | -6.04*** |
| γ2 | 658.9074 | 4.80*** |
| γ3 | -222.5458 | -2.69*** |
| γ4 | 77.8814 | 1.50 |
| γ5 | -26.4469 | -0.65 |
| γ6 | 8.3392 | 0.24 |
| γ7 | 1.3949 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | 16.0599 | 0.40 |
| γ9 | -29.2801 | -0.89 |
| γ10 | 15.9103 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4201 days
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