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Canuma Capital Multiestrateg Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

27.26%

increased by 2.05%

1 Week

29.50%

increased by 4.29%

1 Month

37.10%

increased by 11.89%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Canuma Capital Multiestrateg S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 28, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 4201 trading days (~16.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~4201 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
1.86*
αARCH0.2277
2.60***
βGARCH0.7721
8.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-497.6146
-6.04***
γ2658.9074
4.80***
γ3-222.5458
-2.69***
γ477.8814
1.50
γ5-26.4469
-0.65
γ68.3392
0.24
γ71.3949
0.04
γ816.0599
0.40
γ9-29.2801
-0.89
γ1015.9103
0.90

1.000

Persistence

4201d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
1.86*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2277
2.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7721
8.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-497.6146
-6.04***
γ2658.9074
4.80***
γ3-222.5458
-2.69***
γ477.8814
1.50
γ5-26.4469
-0.65
γ68.3392
0.24
γ71.3949
0.04
γ816.0599
0.40
γ9-29.2801
-0.89
γ1015.9103
0.90

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

4201 days