V-Lab
Canuma Capital Multiestrateg MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.95%
1 Week
26.10%
1 Month
31.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 28, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.5567 | 6.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0127 | 2.45** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -5.41*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3840 | 7.76*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8019 | 9.14*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0315 | 0.74 |
0.319
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5567 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0127 | 2.45** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -5.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3840 | 7.76*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8019 | 9.14*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0315 | 0.74 |
Persistence:
0.319
Half-life:
1 days
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