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Vicinity Centres Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

22.34%

increased by 3.91%

1 Week

22.25%

increased by 3.82%

1 Month

22.00%

increased by 3.57%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vicinity Centres S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 5, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7885
3.17***
αARCH0.0574
3.90***
βGARCH0.8879
37.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.1561
0.96
γ2-0.3313
-1.52
γ30.4137
3.90***
γ4-0.4440
-4.67***
γ50.2540
2.76***
γ6-0.0342
-0.49

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7885
3.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0574
3.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8879
37.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.1561
0.96
γ2-0.3313
-1.52
γ30.4137
3.90***
γ4-0.4440
-4.67***
γ50.2540
2.76***
γ6-0.0342
-0.49

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days