V-Lab
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.17%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
16.57%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
17.65%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:01 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4867 | 9.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.1268 | 8.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8169 | 40.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0161 | 5.24*** |
| γ2 | -0.0191 | -4.87*** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4867 | 9.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1268 | 8.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8169 | 40.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0161 | 5.24*** |
| γ2 | -0.0191 | -4.87*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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