V-Lab
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.48%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
15.93%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
17.30%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1994 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5023 | 5.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0896 | 9.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8750 | 65.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0270 | -1.32 |
| γ2 | 0.0941 | 3.16*** |
| γ3 | -0.1285 | -5.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.0847 | 4.47*** |
| γ5 | -0.0111 | -0.71 |
| γ6 | -0.0233 | -2.21** |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5023 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0896 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8750 | 65.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0270 | -1.32 |
| γ2 | 0.0941 | 3.16*** |
| γ3 | -0.1285 | -5.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.0847 | 4.47*** |
| γ5 | -0.0111 | -0.71 |
| γ6 | -0.0233 | -2.21** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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