V-Lab
Vornado Realty Trust Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
32.44%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
33.66%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
37.41%
increased by 4.53%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7998 | 2.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0810 | 9.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8896 | 78.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1537 | 2.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.2528 | -2.73*** |
| γ3 | 0.1995 | 2.36** |
| γ4 | -0.1922 | -3.12*** |
| γ5 | 0.1484 | 3.96*** |
| γ6 | -0.0505 | -2.16** |
| γ7 | -0.0278 | -1.97** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7998 | 2.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 9.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8896 | 78.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1537 | 2.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.2528 | -2.73*** |
| γ3 | 0.1995 | 2.36** |
| γ4 | -0.1922 | -3.12*** |
| γ5 | 0.1484 | 3.96*** |
| γ6 | -0.0505 | -2.16** |
| γ7 | -0.0278 | -1.97** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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