V-Lab
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.29%
increased by 0.94%
1 Week
16.56%
increased by 1.21%
1 Month
17.35%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:01 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 5.43 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4903 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.1202 | 6.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9584 | 64.13*** |
| νDF | 5.4273 | 1.90* |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4903 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1202 | 6.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9584 | 64.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4273 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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