V-Lab
Puldin Lion Group Reit GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.31%
increased by 6.85%
1 Week
32.47%
increased by 7.01%
1 Month
33.06%
increased by 7.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 13, 2019 to Sep 23, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.0899 | 1.91* |
| αARCH | 0.1198 | 23.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9949 | 409.08*** |
| νDF | 2.0009 |
0.995
Persistence135d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0899 | 1.91* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1198 | 23.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 409.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0009 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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