V-Lab
Puldin Lion Group Reit GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.39%
increased by 6.07%
1 Week
13.35%
increased by 6.03%
1 Month
13.19%
increased by 5.87%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 13, 2019 to Sep 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~122 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0019 | 1.28 |
| αARCH | 0.0514 | 1.28 |
| βGARCH | 0.8998 | 23.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0862 | 0.56 |
0.994
Persistence122d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0514 | 1.28 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8998 | 23.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0862 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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