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Puldin Lion Group Reit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.97%

increased by 9.54%

1 Week

16.96%

increased by 8.53%

1 Month

13.89%

increased by 5.46%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/23/2024

to

09/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Puldin Lion Group Reit S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 13, 2019 to Sep 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.3794
1.34
αARCH0.1031
3.12***
βGARCH0.8337
11.33***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ17.9485
7.01***
γ2-8.0914
-2.64***
γ3-0.6016
-0.13
γ40.6953
0.15
γ5-1.6857
-0.44
γ65.0511
1.79*
γ7-5.4065
-2.31**
γ82.4454
1.24

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.3794
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1031
3.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8337
11.33***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ17.9485
7.01***
γ2-8.0914
-2.64***
γ3-0.6016
-0.13
γ40.6953
0.15
γ5-1.6857
-0.44
γ65.0511
1.79*
γ7-5.4065
-2.31**
γ82.4454
1.24

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days