V-Lab
Puldin Lion Group Reit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.97%
increased by 9.54%
1 Week
16.96%
increased by 8.53%
1 Month
13.89%
increased by 5.46%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 13, 2019 to Sep 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.3794 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.1031 | 3.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8337 | 11.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 7.9485 | 7.01*** |
| γ2 | -8.0914 | -2.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.6016 | -0.13 |
| γ4 | 0.6953 | 0.15 |
| γ5 | -1.6857 | -0.44 |
| γ6 | 5.0511 | 1.79* |
| γ7 | -5.4065 | -2.31** |
| γ8 | 2.4454 | 1.24 |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.3794 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1031 | 3.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8337 | 11.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 7.9485 | 7.01*** |
| γ2 | -8.0914 | -2.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.6016 | -0.13 |
| γ4 | 0.6953 | 0.15 |
| γ5 | -1.6857 | -0.44 |
| γ6 | 5.0511 | 1.79* |
| γ7 | -5.4065 | -2.31** |
| γ8 | 2.4454 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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