V-Lab
UMH Properties Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.31%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
19.83%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
21.58%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0671 | 4.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0641 | 3.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8981 | 78.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.0403 | 1.21 |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0671 | 4.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0641 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8981 | 78.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0403 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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