V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.23%
increased by 1.24%
1 Week
17.05%
increased by 1.06%
1 Month
16.48%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0352 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.0973 | 1.40 |
| βGARCH | 0.8738 | 20.62*** |
| γleverage | -0.0237 | -0.23 |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0352 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 1.40 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8738 | 20.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0237 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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