V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.54%
increased by 3.69%
1 Week
12.02%
increased by 3.17%
1 Month
10.60%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0175 | 0.86 |
| αARCH | 0.2722 | 2.28** |
| βGARCH | 0.6568 | 10.61*** |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 0.86 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2722 | 2.28** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6568 | 10.61*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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