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BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

18.16%

increased by 3.32%

1 Week

17.83%

increased by 2.99%

1 Month

17.04%

increased by 2.20%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 0.58 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0860
1.57
αARCH0.1558
3.05***
βGARCH0.7893
10.38***
γleverage-0.2625
-1.23
δpower0.5801
2.63***

0.915

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0860
1.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1558
3.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7893
10.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2625
-1.23
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5801
2.63***

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days