V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.16%
1 Week
17.83%
1 Month
17.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0860 | 1.57 |
| αARCH | 0.1558 | 3.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7893 | 10.38*** |
| γleverage | -0.2625 | -1.23 |
| δpower | 0.5801 | 2.63*** |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0860 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1558 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7893 | 10.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2625 | -1.23 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5801 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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