V-Lab
Cyrela Credito FII APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
15.46%
1 Week
15.63%
1 Month
16.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. The volatility power δ = 1.53 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0218 | 2.03** |
| αARCH | 0.1106 | 3.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8894 | 29.99*** |
| γleverage | -0.1424 | -0.89 |
| δpower | 1.5290 | 3.68*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1106 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8894 | 29.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1424 | -0.89 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5290 | 3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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