V-Lab
Cyrela Credito FII GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
19.09%
1 Week
19.29%
1 Month
20.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.6403 | 1.88* |
| αARCH | 0.1145 | 10.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9953 | 384.29*** |
| νDF | 3.5678 | 8.48*** |
0.995
Persistence148d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.6403 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 10.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 384.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5678 | 8.48*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
148 days
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