Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Cyrela Credito FII GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

19.09%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

19.29%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

20.02%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Cyrela Credito FII GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~148 daysv = 3.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.6403
1.88*
αARCH0.1145
10.97***
βGARCH0.9953
384.29***
νDF3.5678
8.48***

0.995

Persistence

148d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.6403
1.88*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1145
10.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9953
384.29***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5678
8.48***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

148 days