V-Lab
Cyrela Credito FII Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.94%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
19.39%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
19.87%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9621 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.1074 | 3.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6468 | 4.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 22.3790 | 2.97*** |
| γ2 | -37.6411 | -4.07*** |
| γ3 | 22.4777 | 5.33*** |
| γ4 | -11.4695 | -2.16** |
| γ5 | 14.2394 | 2.54** |
| γ6 | -22.9145 | -4.56*** |
| γ7 | 21.2233 | 4.51*** |
| γ8 | -13.0772 | -2.44** |
| γ9 | 14.9553 | 2.25** |
0.754
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9621 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1074 | 3.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6468 | 4.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 22.3790 | 2.97*** |
| γ2 | -37.6411 | -4.07*** |
| γ3 | 22.4777 | 5.33*** |
| γ4 | -11.4695 | -2.16** |
| γ5 | 14.2394 | 2.54** |
| γ6 | -22.9145 | -4.56*** |
| γ7 | 21.2233 | 4.51*** |
| γ8 | -13.0772 | -2.44** |
| γ9 | 14.9553 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
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