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V-Lab

Cyrela Credito FII MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

14.48%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

14.41%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

14.09%

decreased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Cyrela Credito FII MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.2095
4.37***
βGARCH0.5675
7.09***
γleverage-0.1974
-3.59***
λ₁tau intercept0.2163
3.47***
λ₂forecast adj.0.6899
8.93***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.678

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2095
4.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5675
7.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1974
-3.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2163
3.47***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6899
8.93***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.678

Half-life:

2 days