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V-Lab

Cyrela Credito FII Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

12.56%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

11.99%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Month

11.36%

decreased by 2.20%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Cyrela Credito FII S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9432
2.09**
αARCH0.1074
3.10***
βGARCH0.6340
4.64***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ121.8690
2.92***
γ2-36.7587
-3.99***
γ321.8083
5.24***
γ4-10.8803
-2.08**
γ513.5620
2.46**
γ6-21.8474
-4.46***
γ719.0526
4.29***
γ8-7.8001
-1.68*
γ90.9432
0.26

0.741

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9432
2.09**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1074
3.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6340
4.64***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ121.8690
2.92***
γ2-36.7587
-3.99***
γ321.8083
5.24***
γ4-10.8803
-2.08**
γ513.5620
2.46**
γ6-21.8474
-4.46***
γ719.0526
4.29***
γ8-7.8001
-1.68*
γ90.9432
0.26

Persistence:

0.741

Half-life:

2 days