V-Lab
Cyrela Credito FII Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
13.15%
1 Week
13.51%
1 Month
14.85%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1881042 trading days (~7464.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.40 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0217 | 3.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.1796 | 7.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7867 | 26.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0721 | 0.76 |
| δpower | 2.3992 | 4.10*** |
1.000
Persistence1881042d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0217 | 3.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1796 | 7.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7867 | 26.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0721 | 0.76 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3992 | 4.10*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1881042 days
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