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V-Lab

Cyrela Credito FII Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

13.15%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

13.51%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

14.85%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Cyrela Credito FII APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1881042 trading days (~7464.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.40 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1881042 daysδ = 2.40 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0217
3.15***
αARCH0.1796
7.19***
βGARCH0.7867
26.88***
γleverage0.0721
0.76
δpower2.3992
4.10***

1.000

Persistence

1881042d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0217
3.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1796
7.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7867
26.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0721
0.76
δ

power

Transformation power

2.3992
4.10***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1881042 days