V-Lab
Cyrela Credito FII GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
14.70%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
14.81%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
15.21%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0232 | 2.13** |
| αARCH | 0.1155 | 2.03** |
| βGARCH | 0.8794 | 30.54*** |
| γleverage | -0.0280 | -0.30 |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0232 | 2.13** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1155 | 2.03** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8794 | 30.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0280 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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