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V-Lab

Region Group GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

15.59%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

15.73%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

16.21%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Region Group GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2012 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0222
3.09***
αARCH0.0339
2.30**
βGARCH0.9446
78.90***
γleverage0.0144
0.39

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0222
3.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0339
2.30**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9446
78.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0144
0.39

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days