V-Lab
Region Group GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
15.59%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
15.73%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
16.21%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2012 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0222 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0339 | 2.30** |
| βGARCH | 0.9446 | 78.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0144 | 0.39 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0222 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0339 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9446 | 78.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0144 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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