V-Lab
Region Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
15.46%
increased by 0.59%
1 Week
15.59%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
16.07%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2012 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 9.07 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6225 | 2.28** |
| αARCH | 0.0404 | 5.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9877 | 165.09*** |
| νDF | 9.0690 | 0.54 |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6225 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0404 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 165.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.0690 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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