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V-Lab

Region Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

15.46%

increased by 0.59%

1 Week

15.59%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

16.07%

increased by 1.20%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Region Group GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2012 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 9.07 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6225
2.28**
αARCH0.0404
5.48***
βGARCH0.9877
165.09***
νDF9.0690
0.54

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6225
2.28**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0404
5.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
165.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.0690
0.54

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days