V-Lab
H&R Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.18%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
19.29%
increased by 0.86%
1 Month
19.70%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 5.03 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1970 | 1.07 |
| αARCH | 0.0967 | 8.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9881 | 91.36*** |
| νDF | 5.0301 | 2.82*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1970 | 1.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0967 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 91.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0301 | 2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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