V-Lab
FII Grand Plaza Shopping GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
117.72%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
124.59%
increased by 7.06%
1 Month
148.53%
increased by 31.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.02 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1,234.7612 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.1646 | 32.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9972 | 786.43*** |
| νDF | 2.0248 | 979.60*** |
0.997
Persistence246d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,234.7612 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1646 | 32.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 786.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0248 | 979.60*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
246 days
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