V-Lab
FII Grand Plaza Shopping GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
23.76%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
25.90%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
32.97%
increased by 8.45%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 181 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~181 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2209 | 3.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1530 | 2.30** |
| βGARCH | 0.7849 | 27.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.1165 | 0.81 |
0.996
Persistence181d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2209 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1530 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7849 | 27.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1165 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
181 days
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