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FII Grand Plaza Shopping GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

23.76%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

25.90%

increased by 1.38%

1 Month

32.97%

increased by 8.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FII Grand Plaza Shopping GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 19, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 181 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~181 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2209
3.10***
αARCH0.1530
2.30**
βGARCH0.7849
27.54***
γleverage0.1165
0.81

0.996

Persistence

181d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2209
3.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1530
2.30**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7849
27.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1165
0.81

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

181 days