V-Lab
Vivmark Residential GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
23.57%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
23.61%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
23.77%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 123% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 123% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0431 | 5.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0525 | 4.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8975 | 88.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0646 | 2.51** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0431 | 5.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8975 | 88.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0646 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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