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Vivmark Residential AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

22.94%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

23.00%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

23.20%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vivmark Residential AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.41) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0325
3.79***
αARCH0.0824
8.54***
βGARCH0.8979
78.36***
γleverage0.4150
5.07***

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0325
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0824
8.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8979
78.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4150
5.07***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days