V-Lab
Vivmark Residential AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.94%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
23.00%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
23.20%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.41) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0325 | 3.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0824 | 8.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8979 | 78.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.4150 | 5.07*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0325 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0824 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8979 | 78.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4150 | 5.07*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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