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Vivmark Residential GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

21.09%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

21.18%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

21.50%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vivmark Residential GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-lifev = 7.04 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3345
1.85*
αARCH0.0725
8.87***
βGARCH0.9870
122.84***
νDF7.0358
1.61

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3345
1.85*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0725
8.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9870
122.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0358
1.61

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days