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Vivmark Residential Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

22.43%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

22.69%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

23.58%

increased by 0.72%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vivmark Residential SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9584
7.34***
αARCH0.0879
9.28***
βGARCH0.8935
84.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0015
1.84*

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9584
7.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0879
9.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8935
84.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0015
1.84*

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days