V-Lab
Valora Renda Imobiliaria Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
24.82%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
28.30%
increased by 3.42%
1 Month
29.51%
increased by 4.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4001 | 5.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.2674 | 3.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1389 | 0.82 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.5119 | 2.44** |
0.406
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4001 | 5.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2674 | 3.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1389 | 0.82 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.5119 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.406
Half-life:
1 days
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